Story perspectives

Economists Warn of Recession Risks Amid Trade Policy Turmoil

3/8/2025

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Summary

Story summary

A Reuters poll reveals that 70 out of 74 economists foresee increased recession risks in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada linked to President Trump's trade policies.
Rising inflation risks in the U.S. are complicating decisions for the Federal Reserve.
Economists anticipate a 25-bps rate cut by the Bank of Canada and a 50-bps cut by Mexico's central bank in March.
The International Monetary Fund cautions that ongoing U.S. tariffs will negatively impact Mexico and Canada.

History

Historical Context

The current recession risks in North America echo the 2008 financial crisis, where aggressive trade policies and rising inflation destabilized economies. Past tariffs and monetary tightening led to similar forecasts, emphasizing the cyclical nature of economic downturns and the interconnectedness of trade and monetary policy across borders.

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Story summary

A Reuters poll reveals that 70 out of 74 economists foresee increased recession risks in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada linked to President Trump's trade policies.
Rising inflation risks in the U.S. are complicating decisions for the Federal Reserve.
Economists anticipate a 25-bps rate cut by the Bank of Canada and a 50-bps cut by Mexico's central bank in March.
The International Monetary Fund cautions that ongoing U.S. tariffs will negatively impact Mexico and Canada.

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