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Goldman Sachs Raises U.S. Recession Odds to 45%

4/7/2025

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Summary

Story summary

Goldman Sachs raises the U.S. recession probability from 35% to 45% over the next 12 months.
The bank revises its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 0.5% amid tighter financial conditions.
Anticipated tariffs and policy uncertainty are likely to significantly impact capital spending.
A recession may materialize if tariffs set for April 9 are implemented.

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Story summary

Goldman Sachs raises the U.S. recession probability from 35% to 45% over the next 12 months.
The bank revises its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 0.5% amid tighter financial conditions.
Anticipated tariffs and policy uncertainty are likely to significantly impact capital spending.
A recession may materialize if tariffs set for April 9 are implemented.