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Trump's 104% Tariffs Spark Global Recession Fears

4/10/2025

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Summary

Trump's Tariffs Impact

President Trump's steep tariffs, notably a staggering 104% on China, have sent shockwaves through the markets, igniting fears of a looming recession. Analysts warn of a slowdown in both U.S. and global growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 45% chance of recession. European nations, especially France and the UK, are also bracing for reduced growth amid escalating trade tensions.

Summary

Malhotra Revises Growth

India's Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra has revised the GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5%, a dip from 6.7%, citing the looming threat of U.S. tariffs. The hefty 26% import duty on Indian goods is poised to stifle exports and hinder domestic growth. In response, the RBI has lowered the repo rate to invigorate the economy amidst escalating global trade tensions.

History

Historical Context

President Trump's tariffs, especially the 104% on China, echo historical protectionist policies, notably the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, which worsened the Great Depression by igniting retaliatory measures globally. Analysts predict a similar economic slowdown today, as rising tariffs increase costs for consumers and businesses, threatening both U.S. and global growth amidst escalating trade tensions.

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Trump's Tariffs Impact

President Trump's steep tariffs, notably a staggering 104% on China, have sent shockwaves through the markets, igniting fears of a looming recession. Analysts warn of a slowdown in both U.S. and global growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 45% chance of recession. European nations, especially France and the UK, are also bracing for reduced growth amid escalating trade tensions.

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