Story perspectives

U.S. GDP Declines 0.3%: Recession Fears Rise

5/12/2025

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Summary

Story summary

U.S. GDP fell by 0.3% in Q1 2025, heightening recession concerns after 2.4% growth in late 2024.
Economic uncertainty stems from increased imports ahead of new tariffs and Trump's trade policies.
Consumer confidence hit its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic, fueling recession predictions.
Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of a U.S. recession within a year; JP Morgan sees a 60% chance globally.
The NBER has documented 34 recessions since 1857, averaging 11.1 months in duration.

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Story summary

U.S. GDP fell by 0.3% in Q1 2025, heightening recession concerns after 2.4% growth in late 2024.
Economic uncertainty stems from increased imports ahead of new tariffs and Trump's trade policies.
Consumer confidence hit its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic, fueling recession predictions.
Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of a U.S. recession within a year; JP Morgan sees a 60% chance globally.
The NBER has documented 34 recessions since 1857, averaging 11.1 months in duration.