Story perspectives

IATA Cuts 2025 Airline Profit Forecast Amid Sluggish Growth

6/16/2025

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Summary

Story summary

IATA has lowered its 2025 airline profit forecast from USD36.6 billion to USD36.0 billion amid slower global growth and higher US tariffs.
Revenue growth is anticipated at 1.3%, with passenger revenue increasing by 1.6% and cargo revenue decreasing by 4.7%.
Total costs are expected to rise by 1.0%, primarily due to reduced fuel expenses.
The widening gap between return on invested capital and capital costs signals a need for industry consolidation.
Reducing fragmentation in the airline sector is essential for improving returns and attracting investment for sustainable transitions.

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Story summary

IATA has lowered its 2025 airline profit forecast from USD36.6 billion to USD36.0 billion amid slower global growth and higher US tariffs.
Revenue growth is anticipated at 1.3%, with passenger revenue increasing by 1.6% and cargo revenue decreasing by 4.7%.
Total costs are expected to rise by 1.0%, primarily due to reduced fuel expenses.
The widening gap between return on invested capital and capital costs signals a need for industry consolidation.
Reducing fragmentation in the airline sector is essential for improving returns and attracting investment for sustainable transitions.