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Analyst Lowers Recession Odds, Predicts 25% S&P Drop

6/22/2025

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Summary

Story summary

Peter Berezin of BCA Research reduces his recession probability from 75% to 60%, indicating a less severe outlook.
He forecasts a potential 25% decline in the S&P 500, predicting a drop to 4,500 amid economic slowdown.
Concerns grow over rising consumer delinquency rates and a weakening labor market affecting economic stability.
Current tariffs at 15% pose risks, potentially increasing consumer prices if unresolved.

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Story summary

Peter Berezin of BCA Research reduces his recession probability from 75% to 60%, indicating a less severe outlook.
He forecasts a potential 25% decline in the S&P 500, predicting a drop to 4,500 amid economic slowdown.
Concerns grow over rising consumer delinquency rates and a weakening labor market affecting economic stability.
Current tariffs at 15% pose risks, potentially increasing consumer prices if unresolved.