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Analysts Warn of 40% Recession Risk by 2025

6/26/2025

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Summary

Story summary

JPMorgan analysts estimate a 40% likelihood of a U.S. recession by late 2025, predicting GDP growth at 1.3% due to tariffs.
High inflation increases stagflation risks, complicating potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Apollo Global Management projects GDP growth at 1.2% and inflation near 3% in 2025, anticipating rising unemployment.
A recession may begin as early as summer 2025, driven by tariffs impacting trade and economic activity.

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Story summary

JPMorgan analysts estimate a 40% likelihood of a U.S. recession by late 2025, predicting GDP growth at 1.3% due to tariffs.
High inflation increases stagflation risks, complicating potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Apollo Global Management projects GDP growth at 1.2% and inflation near 3% in 2025, anticipating rising unemployment.
A recession may begin as early as summer 2025, driven by tariffs impacting trade and economic activity.