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10-Year Treasury Yields to Remain at 4.5% Amid Economic Uncertainty

7/10/2025

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Summary

Story summary

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are projected to stay around 4.5% in 2025 amid slowing GDP growth and rising unemployment.
Tariff-induced inflation and a federal deficit forecasted at 6.4% of GDP contribute to this fiscal risk premium.
Uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy is delaying anticipated rate cuts.
Investors should consider reducing long-term bond exposure and hedging against inflation while closely monitoring fiscal policy.

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Story summary

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are projected to stay around 4.5% in 2025 amid slowing GDP growth and rising unemployment.
Tariff-induced inflation and a federal deficit forecasted at 6.4% of GDP contribute to this fiscal risk premium.
Uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy is delaying anticipated rate cuts.
Investors should consider reducing long-term bond exposure and hedging against inflation while closely monitoring fiscal policy.