Story perspectives

IEA Cuts 2025 Oil Demand Forecast Amid Trade Tensions

7/12/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The IEA has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 700,000 bpd, the lowest since 2009.
Demand growth decelerated in Q2, with only a 550,000 bpd increase compared to 1.1 million bpd in Q1.
Trade tensions in China and the US affected demand, while Europe remained more stable.
Global oil production increased by 950,000 bpd in June, mainly due to OPEC and non-OPEC contributions.
A rebound is expected in 2026, with demand projected to rise by 720,000 bpd to 104.4 million bpd.

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Story summary

The IEA has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 700,000 bpd, the lowest since 2009.
Demand growth decelerated in Q2, with only a 550,000 bpd increase compared to 1.1 million bpd in Q1.
Trade tensions in China and the US affected demand, while Europe remained more stable.
Global oil production increased by 950,000 bpd in June, mainly due to OPEC and non-OPEC contributions.
A rebound is expected in 2026, with demand projected to rise by 720,000 bpd to 104.4 million bpd.