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US Economy Faces 47.6% Recession Risk Amid Trade Wars

7/14/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The US economy is teetering on the brink, with a staggering 47.6% chance of recession looming within the next year—the highest since April 2020. Moody's Analytics highlights the detrimental effects of Donald Trump's tariffs and a decline in consumer spending, warning that trade wars and strict immigration policies could jeopardize growth fueled by foreign-born labor.

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Story summary

The US economy is teetering on the brink, with a staggering 47.6% chance of recession looming within the next year—the highest since April 2020. Moody's Analytics highlights the detrimental effects of Donald Trump's tariffs and a decline in consumer spending, warning that trade wars and strict immigration policies could jeopardize growth fueled by foreign-born labor.