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U.S. Recession Odds Plummet as Consumer Spending Surges

7/19/2025

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Summary

Story summary

U.S. recession odds decreased to 19%, down from 70% in April, according to Polymarket.
Strong consumer activity is evident, with personal consumption increasing by 1.8% in Q1.
Rising consumer spending and stable inflation suggest ongoing economic momentum despite GDP contraction.
Officials, including Commerce Secretary Lutnick, foresee no recession, attributing this to $1.3 trillion in new investments.

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Story summary

U.S. recession odds decreased to 19%, down from 70% in April, according to Polymarket.
Strong consumer activity is evident, with personal consumption increasing by 1.8% in Q1.
Rising consumer spending and stable inflation suggest ongoing economic momentum despite GDP contraction.
Officials, including Commerce Secretary Lutnick, foresee no recession, attributing this to $1.3 trillion in new investments.