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JPMorgan Details Four Scenarios for Ukraine's Future

8/5/2025

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Summary

Story summary

JPMorgan Chase's Center for Geopolitics presents a complex outlook on the Ukraine war, detailing four potential scenarios. The favored "Georgia" model, with a 50% likelihood, suggests a Ukraine without foreign troops, raising fears of a shift towards Russia. Meanwhile, the dire "Belarus" scenario foresees total surrender. US envoy Steven Witkoff's imminent Moscow visit could be pivotal in shaping future negotiations.

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Story summary

JPMorgan Chase's Center for Geopolitics presents a complex outlook on the Ukraine war, detailing four potential scenarios. The favored "Georgia" model, with a 50% likelihood, suggests a Ukraine without foreign troops, raising fears of a shift towards Russia. Meanwhile, the dire "Belarus" scenario foresees total surrender. US envoy Steven Witkoff's imminent Moscow visit could be pivotal in shaping future negotiations.