Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics in the South Caucasus: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Agreement

On August 8, 2025, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a historic peace agreement at the White House, facilitated by U.S. President Donald Trump. This agreement, which includes the establishment of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), aims to connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory. The TRIPP corridor is expected to reshape regional connectivity and trade, while granting the U.S. exclusive rights to develop the corridor for up to 99 years.

Trump says ‘Ilham you are great’ in signed photos gifted to AliyevUS-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan deal redraws South Caucasus diplomatic map, says The Washington TimesAliyev warns Armenia: amend constitution or risk falloutThe Jerusalem Post posts on Washington meeting and the Zangezur corridorFormer U.S. Official Questions Armenian-Azeri Deal Brokered By TrumpFM: Azerbaijan expects Armenia to amend constitution before peace deal

The peace agreement follows decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, primarily over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan regained control of the area following a military offensive in 2023, which significantly altered the balance of power in the region. The agreement is seen as a response to the diminishing influence of Russia and Iran in the South Caucasus, as both countries have historically sought to maintain control over the region.

Understanding Russian and Iranian Fears Over Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal and Middle Corridor Trade Route - an Interview with Jennifer WistrandForeign PolicyArmenia-Azerbaijan Agreement—A Victory of the America First VisionArmenia-Azerbaijan Peace: What is Iran Really Afraid of?Ilham Aliyev named the condition for signing a peace agreement with Armenia

The TRIPP corridor is viewed as a strategic threat by Iran, which perceives it as a U.S. encroachment on its northern frontier. Iran has expressed concerns that the corridor undermines its role as a key transit hub and could lead to increased U.S. presence near its borders. Meanwhile, Russia's muted response to the agreement indicates a potential decline in its influence, as it has historically acted as a mediator in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace: What is Iran Really Afraid of?Understanding Russian and Iranian Fears Over Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal and Middle Corridor Trade Route - an Interview with Jennifer WistrandThe Jerusalem Post posts on Washington meeting and the Zangezur corridorWashington meeting in spotlight of Malaysian mediaForeign Policy

Despite the optimism surrounding the peace agreement, there are significant criticisms. Armenian opposition leaders have labeled the TRIPP corridor as a sellout, arguing that it compromises Armenian sovereignty. They express concerns that the agreement fails to address the underlying issues of the conflict, including the rights of displaced Armenians and the ongoing anti-Armenian sentiments in Azerbaijan. Critics also highlight that the agreement does not guarantee the release of Armenian prisoners held in Azerbaijan.

Former U.S. Official Questions Armenian-Azeri Deal Brokered By TrumpForeign PolicyAliyev warns Armenia: amend constitution or risk falloutAliyev says he still wants ‘Zangezur corridor’, claiming it would also benefit ArmeniaUnderstanding Russian and Iranian Fears Over Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal and Middle Corridor Trade Route - an Interview with Jennifer Wistrand

In the wake of the agreement, President Aliyev has emphasized the need for Armenia to amend its constitution to eliminate territorial claims against Azerbaijan before a formal peace treaty can be signed. He stated, “Once that change is made—once the territorial claims against Azerbaijan are removed—the peace agreement will be signed.” Conversely, Pashinyan has maintained that the agreement is a step toward peace, asserting that it opens new opportunities for regional cooperation.

Aliyev warns Armenia: amend constitution or risk falloutIlham Aliyev named the condition for signing a peace agreement with ArmeniaAliyev says he still wants ‘Zangezur corridor’, claiming it would also benefit ArmeniaNikol Pashinyan’s Deceptive Promises On a Nonexistent PeaceForeign PolicyTrump says ‘Ilham you are great’ in signed photos gifted to Aliyev

There are discrepancies regarding the implementation of the agreement. While Azerbaijani officials assert that the TRIPP corridor will enhance regional connectivity, Armenian officials have indicated that the specifics of the corridor's operation and security guarantees remain unresolved. Additionally, the timeline for constitutional amendments in Armenia is uncertain, raising questions about the feasibility of finalizing the peace treaty.

The Jerusalem Post posts on Washington meeting and the Zangezur corridor

The path forward remains fraught with challenges. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan must navigate domestic political pressures and public sentiment regarding the peace agreement. The U.S. and other international actors will need to ensure that the commitments made during the negotiations are upheld to prevent a resurgence of conflict. The success of the TRIPP corridor and the broader peace process will depend on sustained diplomatic engagement and the addressing of historical grievances.

Aliyev warns Armenia: amend constitution or risk fallout