Full Breakdown
Tropical Storm Lorena Weakens but Threatens Flooding in the Southwest
9/5/2025, 6:43:58 AM
Overview of Tropical Storm Lorena's Impact
Tropical Storm Lorena, which recently weakened from hurricane status, is expected to bring significant rainfall and potential flash flooding to parts of the Southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and New Mexico. As of September 4, 2025, the storm was located approximately 125 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that Lorena will continue to weaken, potentially becoming a remnant low by September 6.
Forecasted Rainfall and Flood Risks
Lorena is projected to deliver heavy rainfall across the Baja California Peninsula, with totals reaching up to 15 inches in some areas. The storm's remnants are expected to push moisture into the U.S., leading to rainfall totals of 1 to 5 inches across southern Arizona and parts of New Mexico. Flood watches have been issued for areas including Phoenix and Tucson, where isolated flash flooding is a concern. The NHC has warned that the combination of Lorena's moisture and existing drought conditions in the region could exacerbate flooding risks.
Key Figures and Groups Involved
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring Lorena's path and intensity, providing updates and warnings to affected regions. Local meteorologists, such as Kiera Malarkey from the National Weather Service in Tucson, have emphasized the importance of preparedness in light of the storm's potential impacts.
Criticism and Opposition
Some meteorologists have expressed concerns regarding the uncertainty in Lorena's track and intensity, which complicates predictions about its impact on the U.S. Southwest. The NHC has acknowledged that the storm's weakening could lead to less severe impacts than initially feared, but the potential for flash flooding remains a significant threat.
Official Statements and Responses
The NHC has issued multiple advisories regarding Lorena, stating, "Although Lorena is forecast to rapidly weaken, abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from the cyclone." Local authorities have urged residents to prepare for possible flooding and to stay informed about weather updates.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
There is some discrepancy in the predicted rainfall totals, with various sources estimating between 1 to 5 inches for the U.S. Southwest. Additionally, while some forecasts suggest Lorena may dissipate offshore, others indicate it could still impact land areas significantly.
What's Next
As Lorena continues to weaken, its remnants are expected to move into the U.S. by the weekend, with the greatest chance of rain occurring between September 5 and September 6. The NHC will continue to monitor the situation closely, providing updates on any changes in the storm's trajectory or intensity.
Verbatim Quotes
- “For our area down here in Southern Arizona, we are correlating this influx of moisture as an indirect cause of the [tropical storm]. The [tropical storm's] general push northwards helped push more moisture into our area.” — Kiera Malarkey, National Weather Service Meteorologist
- “The magnitude of Lorena’s impacts in the U.S. will depend heavily on the track of its moisture,” — Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert
- “We urge people and businesses to have a way to get flash flood warnings at all times of the day and night and be prepared to move to higher ground, especially if you are in a low-lying area or near small streams or shallow rivers, as these areas can be particularly susceptible to rapidly rising water,” — Jon Porter, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist
In summary, while Tropical Storm Lorena has weakened, its potential to cause flooding in the U.S. Southwest remains a critical concern, necessitating vigilance and preparedness among residents in affected areas.
