The Legacy of Germany's 2015 Migration Policy: A Decade of Change

In 2015, Germany opened its borders to a significant influx of migrants, primarily from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, amid ongoing conflicts in those regions. This decision, famously encapsulated by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel's declaration "Wir schaffen das" ("We can do this"), marked a pivotal moment in European migration history. Over the next decade, Germany received approximately 2.6 million first-time asylum applications, with the peak occurring in 2015 and 2016, when over 1.1 million people sought refuge.

CNN

As of 2025, the political ramifications of Merkel's decision are evident. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has gained traction, becoming the largest opposition group in the Bundestag. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who took office in May 2025, has initiated sweeping reforms to migration policy, including increased border security and the rejection of asylum seekers at the border. Merz acknowledged the challenges posed by the previous influx, stating, “We clearly did not cope with it. That is exactly why we’re trying to fix it.”

CNN

The integration of migrants has been uneven. While many have successfully found employment—nearly two-thirds of refugees from the 2015 wave were employed by 2022—issues such as language barriers and cultural differences persist. In towns like Altena, which welcomed additional refugees to revitalize their communities, the initial enthusiasm has waned. Local sentiments have shifted, with some residents expressing concerns over rising welfare costs and social cohesion. Thomas Liebig, a migration researcher, noted, “The glass is half full and half empty. Many refugees found jobs, but social cohesion still lags behind.”

“Half full and half empty”: A German town hoped migration could turn its fortunes around. It was no panaceaTen years on: How Europe’s 2015 migration wave redefined societiesTen Years of Migration Crisis: The Fracture that Changed EuropeGermany moves to implement EU asylum reform

Critics of the open-door policy argue that it has led to increased social tensions and rising crime rates, particularly following incidents such as the mass sexual assaults in Cologne on New Year's Eve 2015. Merkel herself acknowledged the polarization her policies have caused, stating, “The fact that I did this has polarized people, has led them to join the AfD.” Public opinion has shifted dramatically; a 2015 poll showed that only 38% of Germans supported accepting fewer refugees, while by 2025, that figure had risen to 68%.

CNN

The European Union is currently working on a new Pact on Migration and Asylum, set to take effect in June 2026, aimed at restoring control over migration flows. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, as many EU states continue to grapple with the challenges of integration and public sentiment. Critics, including NGOs, have raised concerns that proposed reforms may lead to "quasi-detention" conditions for asylum seekers.

Germany moves to implement EU asylum reform

As Germany reflects on a decade since the 2015 migration surge, the legacy of Merkel's policies is complex. While some migrants have successfully integrated and contributed to society, the rise of anti-immigration sentiment and the challenges of social cohesion highlight the ongoing struggles within German society. The future of migration policy in Germany and the EU will likely continue to evolve as governments seek to balance humanitarian obligations with public concerns over security and integration.

Ten years on: How Europe’s 2015 migration wave redefined societies