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UBS Sees 93% Chance of U.S. Recession Ahead

9/7/2025

50 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

UBS estimates a 93% likelihood of a U.S. recession based on troubling economic indicators.
The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of expectations.
Consumer confidence has weakened, with the Conference Board's index at 97.4.
Economists caution about a potential "labor recession" due to slowing job growth.
Hawaii's economy is expected to grow only 1.3% this year, impacted by high tariffs and inflation.

History

Historical Context

The Great Recession, triggered by the 2000s housing bubble and subprime mortgage crisis, peaked in October 2009 with U.S. unemployment reaching 10%. The Federal Reserve's near-zero interest rates aimed to stimulate recovery. Today, a 93% likelihood of recession looms, with consumer confidence at a low 97.4, indicating potential long-term economic challenges for the U.S. and Hawaii.

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Story summary

UBS estimates a 93% likelihood of a U.S. recession based on troubling economic indicators.
The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of expectations.
Consumer confidence has weakened, with the Conference Board's index at 97.4.
Economists caution about a potential "labor recession" due to slowing job growth.
Hawaii's economy is expected to grow only 1.3% this year, impacted by high tariffs and inflation.

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