Economic Growth Trends in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Türkiye for 2025

Saudi Arabia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.9% in the second quarter of 2025, primarily driven by non-oil sectors, as reported by the Saudi General Authority for Statistics. Non-oil activities increased by 4.6% compared to the same quarter in 2024, with significant contributions from the electricity, gas, and water sectors, which recorded a growth of 10.3%. Oil activities also saw a rise of 3.8%, while government activities grew by 0.6%. The Saudi-led OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, although this is a decrease from previous months' increases. The International Monetary Fund has indicated that Saudi Arabia requires oil prices above $90 per barrel to balance its budget, which is projected to have a fiscal deficit of approximately 101 billion riyals ($27 billion) in 2025.

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) reported a robust GDP growth of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching AED 455 billion ($124 billion). Non-oil GDP expanded by 5.3%, contributing to a record 77.3% of total GDP. Key sectors driving this growth included manufacturing, finance, and construction, each showing significant increases. The UAE's economic model emphasizes diversification, with the government implementing policies to foster innovation and attract investment. The UAE has also entered into 28 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA), enhancing trade relations with countries like India, Turkey, and the United States.

UAE GDP grows 3.9% to $124bn in Q1 2025 as non-oil economy hits record 77.3 per cent shareThe National NewsReutersSaudi Arabia’s GDP rises 3.9% in Q2 2025Per capita GDP: Bangladesh ranks 5th in South Asia

Türkiye has revised its GDP growth projection for 2025 down to 3.3%, from a previous target of 4%. This adjustment comes alongside an upward revision of the inflation target to 28.5%. The Turkish economy grew by 3.3% in 2024, reaching TL44.58 trillion ($1.36 trillion). The government aims to combat inflation while maintaining fiscal discipline, with a focus on structural reforms. Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz emphasized the importance of fighting inflation as a priority for Türkiye's economic strategy, which includes enhancing resilience against external shocks.

Türkiye sees higher inflation, trims growth projections in Medium-Term Program for 2026–2028

Critics of Saudi Arabia's economic strategy point to the reliance on oil revenues and the challenges posed by fluctuating oil prices. In the UAE, while the diversification efforts are praised, some analysts caution that the economy remains vulnerable to global economic shifts. In Türkiye, the revised growth projections have raised concerns about the government's ability to manage inflation effectively while fostering sustainable growth.

Reuters

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics highlighted the significant contributions of non-oil sectors to the GDP growth, stating, "Non-oil activities were the main contributor to growth." UAE Minister of Economy and Tourism, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, remarked on the strength of the UAE's economic model, noting, "The performance reflects the confidence of investors and the international community." In Türkiye, Vice President Yilmaz reaffirmed the government's commitment to fighting inflation, stating, "Fighting inflation, the main priority of Türkiye’s economy, will continue with determination."

UAE GDP grows 3.9% to $124bn in Q1 2025 as non-oil economy hits record 77.3 per cent share

While Saudi Arabia's GDP growth is reported at 3.9%, there are differing views on the sustainability of this growth given the dependency on oil prices. In Türkiye, the inflation target has been raised, indicating potential economic instability, which contrasts with the government's optimistic growth projections. The UAE's diversification strategy is generally viewed positively, but concerns about global economic conditions persist.

UAE GDP grows 3.9% to $124bn in Q1 2025 as non-oil economy hits record 77.3 per cent share

This analysis of economic growth trends in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye for 2025 illustrates the varying challenges and strategies employed by these nations in navigating a complex global economic landscape.

UAE GDP grows 3.9% to $124bn in Q1 2025 as non-oil economy hits record 77.3 per cent share