Africa's Trade Dynamics with China: Opportunities and Challenges

In the first seven months of 2025, African imports of Chinese goods surged by 25% year-on-year, reaching $122 billion, according to Bloomberg's analysis of China Customs data. Nigeria led the continent's purchases, accounting for 11% of total imports, followed by South Africa (10%), Egypt (9%), Liberia (8%), and Algeria (6%). This increase is primarily driven by heightened demand for construction machinery, passenger cars, and steel, with a notable 60% rise in solar panel imports over the past year. Despite this growth, Africa faces a significant trade deficit with China, which stood at $61.93 billion in 2024, as the continent exported only $116.79 billion worth of goods to China while importing $178.76 billion.

Surge in Africa’s China imports prompts calls to tackle trade deficitNigeria in talks with China to boost marine and blue economy tiesChina’s export surplus suggests a shift in global trade

China's recent announcement of a zero-tariff policy for all African nations maintaining diplomatic ties is viewed as a potential game-changer. Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama described this policy as a unique opportunity for Africa to enhance its exports, particularly in agricultural products where the continent has a comparative advantage. However, Mahama emphasized that the benefits of this policy will only materialize if African countries can expand their production capabilities. Peter Kagwanja, president of the Africa Policy Institute, echoed this sentiment, stating that Africa must shift from being a consumer of overpriced finished goods to a producer of higher-value products to effectively leverage the zero-tariff initiative.

China's zero-tariff policy offers opportunities for Africa: Ghanaian presidentSurge in Africa’s China imports prompts calls to tackle trade deficitNigeria in talks with China to boost marine and blue economy ties

Critics argue that the trade relationship between Africa and China remains lopsided. Cavince Adhere, an international relations specialist, pointed out that trade in services has been underutilized and could help rectify the trade imbalance. He highlighted the potential of sectors like tourism, noting that the number of Chinese tourists visiting Kenya is projected to double this year. Adhere also stressed the need for Africa to diversify its trading relationships, especially in light of the U.S. adopting more hostile trade policies.

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The rise of mobile payment platforms, such as PalmPay and Opay, is transforming commerce in Africa and enhancing trade with China. These platforms have made transactions more efficient, allowing traders to bypass traditional banking delays. For instance, a garment trader in Johannesburg can receive payments in renminbi almost instantly, reducing transaction costs significantly. However, the rapid growth of mobile wallets faces challenges, including regulatory crackdowns and increasing competition from Western firms.

China Global South Project

The recent meeting between Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria Yu Dunhai and Nigeria’s Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, underscores the ongoing efforts to deepen cooperation in maritime development. This partnership aims to enhance Nigeria's port infrastructure, particularly at Lekki Port, which is pivotal for boosting trade and addressing coastal challenges. As both countries explore opportunities in the blue economy, the focus remains on sustainable practices and capacity building.

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While the surge in imports from China is evident, the extent to which African nations can capitalize on the zero-tariff policy remains uncertain. Discrepancies exist regarding the effectiveness of current trade strategies, and the long-term impacts of China's evolving trade routes, such as the new China-Europe Arctic Express, on African economies are yet to be fully understood.

Surge in Africa’s China imports prompts calls to tackle trade deficit

• “As long as Africa remains a consumer of over-priced finished goods like electronics and machinery from China and a supplier of under-priced raw materials, this deficit will continue to widen,” — Peter Kagwanja, President, Africa Policy Institute

Surge in Africa’s China imports prompts calls to tackle trade deficit

• “Trade in services is an area that has been neglected for far too long.” — Cavince Adhere, International Relations Specialist

Surge in Africa’s China imports prompts calls to tackle trade deficit

• “We need to look at the items China imports from the United States and see where we have a comparative advantage to take up those opportunities,” — John Dramani Mahama, President of Ghana

China's zero-tariff policy offers opportunities for Africa: Ghanaian president

• “It's unfortunate that America is upending the whole world trade system.” — John Dramani Mahama, President of Ghana

China's zero-tariff policy offers opportunities for Africa: Ghanaian president

The evolving trade dynamics between Africa and China present both opportunities and challenges, necessitating strategic adjustments and diversification to ensure mutual benefits.

Surge in Africa’s China imports prompts calls to tackle trade deficit