Full Breakdown
The Erosion of the Global Rules-Based Order: Insights from the European Union and China
9/12/2025, 9:28:40 PM
Decline of the Global Order
The European Union (EU) has issued a stark warning regarding the deterioration of the global rules-based order, as articulated in its “Strategic Foresight Report 2025.” The report highlights the increasing geopolitical turmoil and the erosion of multilateralism, stating that “we are witnessing the erosion of the rules-based international order and fracturing of the global landscape.” The EU emphasizes the need for autonomy in protecting its interests, particularly in light of rising dependencies on the United States for digital and financial services and on China for critical minerals. This dependency poses significant economic and security risks, especially as export restrictions on industrial raw materials have surged since 2023.
EU's Strategic Response
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to address these challenges in her upcoming state of the EU speech. The report outlines a grim backdrop, with von der Leyen facing criticism for a perceived lopsided tariff deal with the U.S. and for her unsuccessful appeals to China regarding the export of rare earth elements. The report does not propose specific solutions but calls for improved policies and a coherent global vision for the EU, reflecting a broader recognition that the previous status quo is unlikely to return.
China's Role in the New Order
In parallel, China's ambitions for a new world order are becoming increasingly evident. Observers note that the Chinese Communist Party aims to reshape international governance with China at its center, promoting a model that prioritizes state security over individual rights. This perspective aligns with von der Leyen's assertion that China seeks a systemic change in the global order, challenging the established norms that have governed international relations since World War II.
China's approach to global governance is characterized by a dual strategy: while it seeks to uphold existing institutions like the United Nations, it simultaneously promotes its own initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to enhance its influence across Asia and beyond. This strategy has raised concerns in the West, particularly regarding China's growing assertiveness and its implications for global stability.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics argue that the EU's response to these challenges lacks clarity and actionable strategies. The report has been described as a mere acknowledgment of risks without offering concrete solutions. Additionally, there is skepticism about whether the EU can effectively navigate its dependencies on both the U.S. and China while maintaining its strategic autonomy.
Conversely, some analysts suggest that the perception of China as an existential threat may be exaggerated. They argue that while China does pose challenges to certain aspects of the global order, its behavior is not uniformly antagonistic and often aligns with existing norms in various international regimes.
Conclusion: A World in Flux
As the global landscape shifts, the EU's recognition of the declining rules-based order and China's assertive ambitions signal a transformative period in international relations. The interplay between these two entities will shape the future of global governance, with the potential for both conflict and cooperation. The ongoing challenges underscore the necessity for adaptive strategies that prioritize resilience and multilateral engagement in an increasingly multipolar world.
