Ken Paxton's Senate Primary Challenge Against John Cornyn: A Fluid Race

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is currently challenging incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary for the 2026 Senate race. A recent poll conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research from August 27 to August 29, 2025, indicates that Paxton is trailing Cornyn, with 26% of potential votes compared to Cornyn's 32%. The poll, which surveyed 843 registered voters, has a margin of error of 4.6%. Notably, 29% of respondents remain undecided, suggesting a fluid race that could significantly impact the general election dynamics in Texas, a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

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The poll reveals that while Cornyn has a slight lead, a significant portion of voters are undecided, which could shift as the election approaches. The favorability ratings show Cornyn at 27% favorable versus 31% unfavorable, while Paxton stands at 25% favorable and 34% unfavorable. The undecided voters' leanings will be crucial in determining the primary outcome, as many potential voters report being insufficiently familiar with either candidate.

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Paxton has positioned his campaign as a response to what he perceives as Cornyn's betrayal of the "America First" movement, stating on social media, "Texas deserves better, and that's why I'm running for U.S. Senate." Cornyn's campaign emphasizes his conservative credentials and commitment to Texas, highlighting his efforts in securing the border and supporting veterans.

Newsweek

Political analysts note that Paxton's strategy may involve appealing to Trump supporters by focusing on issues like border security and crime, while distancing himself from Trump's less favorable aspects. Critics argue that Paxton's legal troubles, including his impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives in 2023 and ongoing investigations into his conduct, could undermine his campaign. Furthermore, his recent personal controversies, including allegations of infidelity, may also affect voter perception.

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While the polling data indicates a competitive race, the lack of clarity regarding the undecided voters' preferences leaves room for speculation. Experts suggest that the dynamics of the race could change rapidly as candidates ramp up their campaigns and engage with voters.

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The Texas Republican primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. As the primary date approaches, both candidates are expected to intensify their campaigning efforts, with Paxton aiming to consolidate support among undecided voters and Cornyn working to maintain his lead. The outcome of this primary could have significant implications for the general election, particularly if a divisive candidate emerges from the Republican side.

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• “For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that's why I'm running for U.S. Senate.” — Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General

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• “Rather, having so many voters undecided tells us that the Republican nomination battle in Texas remains fluid.” — D. Stephen Voss, Political Science Professor

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• “Shapiro to Newsweek via email Friday: "The number of undecided voters is close to the level of support for either candidate, so the election result looks fluid at this point.” — Robert Y. Shapiro, Columbia University Professor

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