Story perspectives

Economist Warns: Rising Jobless Claims Signal Economic Bubble

9/13/2025

47 10

Summary

Story summary

Economist David Rosenberg warns of a potential US economic downturn, noting jobless claims have risen to 263,000, surpassing expectations.
He anticipates negative effects on nonfarm payrolls as claims exceed 240,000.
Despite these concerns, stock prices hit all-time highs, suggesting a possible bubble.
The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio stands at 37.5, the third-highest ever recorded.
Historically, high valuations lead to weak market returns, with negative one-year returns when the ratio exceeds 35.

1 of 1

Story summary

Economist David Rosenberg warns of a potential US economic downturn, noting jobless claims have risen to 263,000, surpassing expectations.
He anticipates negative effects on nonfarm payrolls as claims exceed 240,000.
Despite these concerns, stock prices hit all-time highs, suggesting a possible bubble.
The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio stands at 37.5, the third-highest ever recorded.
Historically, high valuations lead to weak market returns, with negative one-year returns when the ratio exceeds 35.