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Recession Risk Rises: 48% Chance, Warns Economist Zandi

9/15/2025

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Summary

Story summary

Mark Zandi warns of a high likelihood of recession, estimating a 48% chance within the next year.
He identifies declining residential building permits as a key recession indicator.
Increasing unsold homes, driven by weak buyer demand, lead builders to cut new permits.
August permit data will be released on September 17, during the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting.
Zandi expects this data may lead to a Fed rate cut, but doubts it will avert a recession.

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Story summary

Mark Zandi warns of a high likelihood of recession, estimating a 48% chance within the next year.
He identifies declining residential building permits as a key recession indicator.
Increasing unsold homes, driven by weak buyer demand, lead builders to cut new permits.
August permit data will be released on September 17, during the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting.
Zandi expects this data may lead to a Fed rate cut, but doubts it will avert a recession.