Full Breakdown
Virginia Gubernatorial Race: Spanberger Leads Earle-Sears Ahead of Early Voting
9/19/2025, 11:23:43 AM
Polling Overview and Key Findings
A recent poll conducted by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University indicates that Democrat Abigail Spanberger is leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 12 percentage points in the Virginia gubernatorial race, with 52% of likely voters supporting Spanberger compared to 40% for Earle-Sears. The poll, which surveyed 808 registered voters between September 8 and 14, 2025, also revealed that 8% of respondents remain undecided. This polling data emerges just as early voting is set to begin on September 19, 2025, with Election Day scheduled for November 4.
In addition to the gubernatorial race, the poll shows Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican John Reid by 11 points in the lieutenant governor contest (48% to 37%), and Democrat Jay Jones ahead of incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares by 7 points (48% to 41%).
Voter Demographics and Key Issues
Spanberger's support is notably strong among key demographics, including 95% of Democratic voters, 55% of Independents, and 85% of Black voters. Earle-Sears, while maintaining strong support from 91% of Republicans, is facing challenges in appealing to broader voter segments, particularly among women and younger voters.
The poll also highlights the primary issues influencing voter decisions, with 21% citing inflation and cost of living as their top concern, followed by 18% identifying threats to democracy. Other significant issues include K-12 education, immigration, and crime, each mentioned by 9% of respondents.
Candidate Favorability Ratings
The favorability ratings for the candidates reflect the polling dynamics. Spanberger holds a +10 favorability rating (43% favorable to 33% unfavorable), while Earle-Sears has a -3 rating (34% favorable to 37% unfavorable). The lieutenant governor candidates, Hashmi and Reid, are less well-known, with 75% of voters indicating they do not have enough information to form an opinion about Reid.
Official Statements and Responses
Spanberger has received endorsements from former Republican Congress members Barbara Comstock and Denver Riggleman, emphasizing her bipartisan approach. Riggleman stated, “I saw firsthand that Abigail was one of the most bipartisan members of Congress,” while Comstock noted her support is based on what is best for Virginia rather than party affiliation.
Conversely, Earle-Sears has framed the election as a choice between “sanity and chaos,” criticizing Spanberger's policies as extreme. She stated, “We must protect our children from Abigail Spanberger's extremist agenda,” highlighting the stark contrast in their campaign narratives.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics of Spanberger argue that her positions, particularly on labor issues such as the right-to-work law, may alienate moderate voters. Earle-Sears has positioned herself as a defender of these laws, asserting that repealing them could harm Virginia's economic attractiveness.
What's Next
As early voting begins, both candidates are expected to ramp up their campaign efforts, with Spanberger focusing on her bipartisan appeal and Earle-Sears seeking to consolidate Republican support. The Wason Center plans to conduct additional surveys leading up to Election Day to monitor shifts in voter sentiment.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I saw firsthand that Abigail was one of the most bipartisan members of Congress,” — Denver Riggleman, Former U.S. Representative
- “This election is a choice between sanity and chaos. We must protect our children from Abigail Spanberger's extremist agenda,” — Winsome Earle-Sears, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia
The Virginia gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a significant contest, reflecting broader national political trends as voters prepare to make their decisions in the coming weeks.
