Story perspectives

Holiday Retail Sales to Exceed $975 Billion Despite Consumer Caution

9/19/2025

Summary

Story summary

U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to increase by 4% year-over-year, exceeding $975 billion, as per Bain & Company.
In-store sales may rise by 2.75%, while e-commerce growth is expected to slow to 7%.
Financial pressures affect consumers, with rising credit delinquencies and low savings rates.
AlixPartners indicates 80% of consumers plan to maintain or reduce spending, with high-income households contributing to some growth.
Retailers should prioritize value and promotions to address cautious consumer behavior during a challenging holiday season.

History

Historical Context

The 2008 financial crisis severely impacted the U.S. economy, causing retail sales to plummet by 5.4% and consumer credit delinquencies to peak at 10.3%. Today, similar economic pressures are evident as 80% of consumers plan to reduce spending, prompting retailers to emphasize value and promotions to adapt to changing consumer behavior and ongoing economic challenges.

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Story summary

U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to increase by 4% year-over-year, exceeding $975 billion, as per Bain & Company.
In-store sales may rise by 2.75%, while e-commerce growth is expected to slow to 7%.
Financial pressures affect consumers, with rising credit delinquencies and low savings rates.
AlixPartners indicates 80% of consumers plan to maintain or reduce spending, with high-income households contributing to some growth.
Retailers should prioritize value and promotions to address cautious consumer behavior during a challenging holiday season.

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