Full Breakdown
Virginia Gubernatorial Race: Early Voting Begins Amidst Polling Insights
9/20/2025, 1:35:16 PM
Early Voting Commences
Early in-person voting for Virginia's gubernatorial election began on September 19, 2025, with the general election scheduled for November 4. This election is particularly significant as it features the state's first female gubernatorial candidates: Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Virginia's gubernatorial races are often viewed as a referendum on the current presidential administration, and this year's contest is no exception, given the historical trend of Virginia voting for the opposite party of the sitting president.
Polling Landscape
Recent polling from Christopher Newport University's Wason Center indicates that Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 12 percentage points, garnering 52% of likely voters compared to Earle-Sears' 40%. Only 8% of respondents remain undecided. Spanberger's support is bolstered by significant backing from independent voters (55% to 32%) and demographic groups such as women (58% to 33%) and Black voters (85% to 6%). Conversely, Earle-Sears maintains strong support among Republicans (91%) and leads among white voters (50% to 44%).
Key Issues and Voter Sentiment
The top concerns for Virginia voters include inflation and the cost of living (21%), threats to democracy (18%), and education, immigration, and crime (each at 9%). The approval ratings for current Governor Glenn Youngkin stand at 48%, while President Donald Trump's approval is notably lower at 39%, with a disapproval rate of 58%. This nationalization of state elections is expected to impact the gubernatorial race, as Spanberger's campaign seeks to tie Earle-Sears to Trump's policies.
Campaign Dynamics and Strategies
Both candidates have ramped up their campaign activities as early voting begins. Spanberger emphasized the importance of affordability issues affecting Virginians, while Earle-Sears, alongside Governor Youngkin, focused on job creation and economic growth. Earle-Sears has criticized Spanberger for her immigration policies, claiming they would undermine Virginia's safety and economic stability.
Criticism and Opposition
Earle-Sears has labeled Spanberger a "typical divisive politician," while Spanberger has sought to connect Earle-Sears to Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has overseen significant job cuts in Virginia. The state has lost approximately 7,800 federal jobs in the first half of 2025, with projections of further losses by 2025.
Security Concerns
The political climate has been heightened by recent events, including the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, prompting both campaigns to increase security measures at public events. Spanberger condemned the violence, calling it "absolutely horrifying," while Earle-Sears echoed similar sentiments.
What's Next?
As early voting continues until November 1, both campaigns are focused on mobilizing their bases and appealing to undecided voters. The Wason Center plans to conduct additional surveys leading up to the election to capture any shifts in voter sentiment. The outcome of this election could serve as a bellwether for the upcoming midterm elections, with implications for both state and national political landscapes.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Whether it's because you just saw your rent go up, or you think you might want to buy your first house, or you're trying to pick up your prescription at the pharmacy for your kid, for your parents, for yourself, issues of affordability continue to be top of mind for people across Virginia,” — Abigail Spanberger, Democratic Candidate
- “We've got more jobs that we need to produce.” — Winsome Earle-Sears, Republican Candidate
- “The fact that a man engaged in a First Amendment debate, whether one agrees with him or not, the fact that he was gunned down in broad daylight because of his political activism is an atrocious reality that everyone should denounce,” — Abigail Spanberger on Charlie Kirk's assassination
- “Just because he was using his First Amendment rights, he was gunned down,” — Winsome Earle-Sears on Charlie Kirk's assassination
This election is poised to be a critical moment for Virginia, reflecting broader national trends and voter sentiments as the state prepares to cast its ballots.
