Story perspectives

Italy's Credit Rating Soars, France Faces Downgrade

9/22/2025

Summary

Italy's Credit Upgrade

Fitch Ratings upgraded Italy's credit rating to "BBB+" from "BBB," citing improved public finances and political stability under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Italy's public deficit fell to 3.4% of GDP in 2024, down from 7.2% in 2023, meeting government targets.
Conversely, Fitch downgraded France's rating to "A+" due to rising debt and political instability.
Italy's GDP growth was 0.7% in 2024, with debt at 135% of GDP, compared to France's 113%.
Fitch's review will precede assessments from S&P Global and Moody's.

Summary

Lecornu's Financial Stabilization

France and Italy are experiencing rising tensions amid France's political instability and increasing debt.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu seeks to stabilize finances, while Italy reduces its debt effectively.
France's budget deficit is projected at 5.4% of GDP, compared to Italy's 3.3%.
The EU is accelerating budget negotiations due to concerns over a potential far-right victory in France's elections.
Italy's political stability contrasts with France's frequent leadership changes, having five prime ministers in under two years.

History

Historical Context

The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 set fiscal criteria for EU member states, including a public deficit limit of 3%. In 2024, Italy's public deficit improved to 3.4% of GDP under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, contrasting with France's projected 5.4% deficit amid political instability. These financial trends could significantly impact future EU budget negotiations and member state dynamics.

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Italy's Credit Upgrade

Fitch Ratings upgraded Italy's credit rating to "BBB+" from "BBB," citing improved public finances and political stability under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Italy's public deficit fell to 3.4% of GDP in 2024, down from 7.2% in 2023, meeting government targets.
Conversely, Fitch downgraded France's rating to "A+" due to rising debt and political instability.
Italy's GDP growth was 0.7% in 2024, with debt at 135% of GDP, compared to France's 113%.
Fitch's review will precede assessments from S&P Global and Moody's.

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