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Debate Erupts Over Recession Definition and GDP Growth

9/23/2025

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Summary

Story summary

EJ Antoni argues that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth define a recession.
Critics say the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not strictly follow that rule.
Historical data show two quarters of growth without an NBER recession designation.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) GDP data date back only to 1947, challenging Antoni's claim.

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Story summary

EJ Antoni argues that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth define a recession.
Critics say the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not strictly follow that rule.
Historical data show two quarters of growth without an NBER recession designation.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) GDP data date back only to 1947, challenging Antoni's claim.