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Chicago Fed Projects 4.3% Unemployment Amid Inflation Warnings

9/24/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The Chicago Federal Reserve unveiled a real-time unemployment-rate estimate using government and private data.
It projects September unemployment at 4.3% with hiring gains offset by layoffs.
The estimate offers early insight ahead of October 3 employment report.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will discuss potential rate cuts at the upcoming meeting; President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against further reductions amid inflation concerns.

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Story summary

The Chicago Federal Reserve unveiled a real-time unemployment-rate estimate using government and private data.
It projects September unemployment at 4.3% with hiring gains offset by layoffs.
The estimate offers early insight ahead of October 3 employment report.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will discuss potential rate cuts at the upcoming meeting; President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against further reductions amid inflation concerns.