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EBRD Cuts Turkey's Growth Forecast Amid Economic Risks

9/25/2025

37 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lowers Turkey's 2025 growth to 3.1% and 2026 to 3.3%.
The report notes a divergence in growth, with Turkey and Central Asia outperforming emerging Europe.
Risks include rising public debt, inflation, and US tariffs. The EBRD adds six economies in Sub-Saharan Africa and Iraq, signaling broader regional links and resilience through diversification.

History

Historical Context

In 1999, Turkey faced a severe economic crisis, resulting in a 5.7% GDP contraction. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) intervened with a $16 billion bailout, highlighting the necessity for structural reforms. As of 2025, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects a modest 3.1% growth, reflecting ongoing economic challenges, including high public debt and inflation.

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Story summary

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lowers Turkey's 2025 growth to 3.1% and 2026 to 3.3%.
The report notes a divergence in growth, with Turkey and Central Asia outperforming emerging Europe.
Risks include rising public debt, inflation, and US tariffs. The EBRD adds six economies in Sub-Saharan Africa and Iraq, signaling broader regional links and resilience through diversification.

1 / 2