Full Breakdown
Canada’s Population Growth Hits Historic Low Amid Immigration Policy Changes
9/25/2025, 10:37:58 PM
Population Growth Overview
Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s population growth was nearly stagnant in the second quarter of 2025, with an increase of just 47,098 people, marking a growth rate of only 0.1 percent. This is the lowest second-quarter growth rate since 1946, excluding pandemic years. The decline is primarily attributed to a significant outflow of non-permanent residents, with 58,719 leaving the country— the largest quarterly decrease since 1971 outside of the pandemic.
Immigration Policy Changes and Their Impact
The federal government implemented changes to immigration policies in 2024 aimed at reducing the number of non-permanent residents. These measures included limiting the intake of temporary foreign workers and study permits, which had previously contributed to a population increase of approximately 1 million people annually from 2022 to early 2025. The current population of Canada stands at approximately 41.65 million.
As a result of these policy shifts, the number of temporary residents has decreased by about 114,000 since the beginning of the year, with study-permit holders dropping by 32,025 between April and July 2025. The government aims to cap the non-permanent resident population at 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2026.
Aging Population Concerns
Alongside the decline in non-permanent residents, Canada’s average age has risen from 41.6 to 41.8 years. This trend raises concerns about the shrinking working-age population and the increasing number of older adults requiring care. Armine Yalnizyan, an economist, highlighted that certain sectors, such as construction and long-term care, may face labor shortages as a result of these demographic shifts.
Parisa Mahboubi, a labour economist at the C.D. Howe Institute, noted that while immigration can help mitigate aging issues, it cannot entirely prevent them, as immigrants also age. She emphasized the importance of attracting skilled workers to enhance economic productivity.
Criticism of Current Immigration Strategy
Critics argue that the current immigration strategy may not adequately address the challenges posed by an aging population and declining birth rates, which have reached a record low of 1.25 children per woman. Mikal Skuterud, a labour economist, expressed skepticism about the government's ability to meet its temporary resident population targets due to rising asylum claims and a backlog in processing.
Furthermore, nearly 200 organizations have called for a renewed vision for Canadian immigration, advocating for clear principles that support economic growth and attract global talent while addressing public concerns about housing affordability and unemployment.
Conclusion and Future Implications
As Canada navigates these demographic challenges, the implications of its immigration policies will be critical for future economic stability. The decline in non-permanent residents may provide an opportunity for the housing market and public services to stabilize, but it also raises questions about the long-term viability of Canada’s labor force. The upcoming Immigration Levels Plan, set to be tabled by November 1, will be pivotal in shaping the country’s demographic landscape moving forward.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Armine Yalnizyan, an economist and Atkinson fellow on the future of workers, says the slowing population numbers might not have an effect on the economy immediately but could in the long run.” — Armine Yalnizyan, Economist
- “Immigration helps, but immigration … is not able to prevent Canada from aging because immigrants also age,” — Parisa Mahboubi, Labour Economist
- “I expect that the pace of decline will accelerate over the next few quarters, as study permits and work permits expire, and fewer of these permits are issued.” — Mikal Skuterud, Labour Economist
- “We should be treating startups the way we treat our natural resources. They are a strategic asset that underpins our future economy.” — Chad Bayne, Co-chair, Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
There are discrepancies regarding the effectiveness of the current immigration policies. While some experts believe that the measures will help stabilize the population, others express doubt about the government's ability to meet its targets due to rising asylum claims and the ongoing decline in temporary residents.
