Full Breakdown
GE Aerospace and Boeing: A Look Ahead to 2028
9/30/2025, 1:57:10 AM
GE Aerospace's Growth Projections
GE Aerospace, a leading player in the commercial aviation sector, has outlined an optimistic outlook for 2028. The company anticipates significant growth driven by its dominant position in the narrowbody and widebody engine markets. According to recent updates from GE's management, adjusted revenue growth is expected to reach double digits, with operating profit projected at $11.5 billion and free cash flow (FCF) at $8.5 billion by 2028. This represents a substantial improvement from previous forecasts, reflecting the company's strong market fundamentals and operational conditions.
The business model of GE Aerospace is heavily reliant on its engines being integrated into aircraft manufactured by Boeing and Airbus. With engines capable of operating for up to 40 years, GE stands to benefit from long-term service sales, particularly through maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) activities. The company’s joint venture with Safran, CFM International, produces the LEAP engine, which is the exclusive engine for the Boeing 737 MAX and one of two options for the Airbus A320neo family. Management expects the fleet of LEAP engines to triple by 2030, contributing to a projected 70% increase in narrowbody profit by 2028.
Boeing's Regulatory and Market Resurgence
Boeing has recently experienced a significant turnaround, marked by a surge in stock prices following the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) decision to restore partial certification authority for its 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner aircraft. This pivotal moment allows Boeing to self-certify its jets, expediting the production and delivery process. As of September 26, 2025, Boeing's stock closed at $221.26, reflecting a 46% increase over the past year.
The FAA's decision is seen as a vote of confidence in Boeing's improvements in production quality, which had been under intense scrutiny following the 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019. Major orders from airlines, including Turkish Airlines' commitment to purchase 75 Boeing 787 jets and potential orders for up to 150 737 MAX jets, have further bolstered investor optimism. Boeing's total backlog now stands at approximately $619 billion, covering around 5,900 aircraft.
Official Statements & Responses
GE Aerospace's management has expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth potential, emphasizing the importance of service revenue from its engines. CFO Rahul Ghai noted that a significant portion of the CFM56 fleet has yet to undergo its first shop visit, indicating ongoing revenue opportunities. Meanwhile, Boeing's CEO Kelly Ortberg highlighted the FAA's decision as a crucial step in restoring the company's safety-first culture and operational stability.
Criticism & Opposition
Despite the positive outlook for both GE Aerospace and Boeing, some analysts caution against potential execution risks. Concerns remain regarding Boeing's ability to meet production targets amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny and labor disputes. Additionally, the competitive landscape, particularly from Airbus, poses challenges that could impact Boeing's market share.
What's Next
Looking ahead, both GE Aerospace and Boeing are positioned for growth, but they must navigate various challenges. GE Aerospace aims to ramp up service revenue from its LEAP engines, while Boeing focuses on increasing production rates and fulfilling its substantial order backlog. The coming years will be critical for both companies as they strive to solidify their market positions and address the evolving demands of the aerospace industry.
