Shifting Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa's Agricultural Trade

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has significant agricultural potential, characterized by vast arable land and a growing global demand for food. However, the region currently accounts for less than 3% of global agricultural exports, with its trade largely dominated by oil and minerals. Agricultural exports from SSA are primarily low-value and unprocessed, limiting economic transformation. Longstanding trade preferences, such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and the Everything But Arms (EBA) initiative, have yielded mixed results, often excluding competitive agricultural products from key markets like the European Union (EU) and the United States.

African agrifood trade at a crossroadsGlobal Food Security and Its Business Implications Amid Conflicts

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has provided preferential access to the U.S. market for 25 years, is set to expire on September 30, 2025. This expiration presents both challenges and opportunities for SSA. The region's agricultural exports are heavily reliant on the EU, while imports are increasingly sourced from Asia. The EU's upcoming regulations aimed at banning imports linked to deforestation pose a significant risk for SSA countries that cannot demonstrate compliance, potentially jeopardizing access to critical markets.

African agrifood trade at a crossroads

Conversely, China has recently eliminated tariffs for 53 African countries, which could enhance SSA's export capabilities. For instance, Kenya's avocado exports to China may benefit from this tariff removal, allowing it to compete more effectively against established suppliers like Mexico and Chile.

African agrifood trade at a crossroads

Despite these opportunities, SSA faces substantial challenges in enhancing its agricultural competitiveness. The region must improve agricultural productivity, processing capacity, and overall market competitiveness to capitalize on new trade dynamics. Meeting stringent import standards set by the U.S., EU, and China is crucial, as these markets impose numerous non-tariff measures on agricultural products. Furthermore, SSA's infrastructure and logistics systems rank among the lowest globally, complicating the export of perishable goods.

African agrifood trade at a crossroadsGlobal Food Security and Its Business Implications Amid Conflicts

Critics argue that treating SSA as a uniform entity in trade discussions overlooks significant disparities among countries in terms of income levels, competitiveness, and institutional capacity. The expansion of China's zero-tariff policy to all African countries raises concerns about the potential erosion of trade preferences for least developed countries (LDCs), which may lose competitive advantages compared to middle-income nations.

African agrifood trade at a crossroads

To unlock the full potential of SSA's agricultural trade, countries must invest in infrastructure, rural development, and technology while reforming policies to support farmers and agribusinesses. The changing landscape of global trade presents both risks and opportunities, and success will depend on the ability of SSA nations to adapt and innovate in response to these dynamics. With strategic investments and partnerships, agricultural trade could become a key driver of inclusive growth across the continent.

African agrifood trade at a crossroads

• “If SSA countries don’t make a deliberate effort to improve agricultural productivity, processing capacity, and overall competitiveness, they may miss the chance to reshape their role in global trade.” — Valeria Piñeiro, Regional Representative for Latin America and the Caribbean, IFPRI

African agrifood trade at a crossroads

There is a discrepancy regarding the impact of AGOA's expiration, with some sources suggesting it will significantly hinder SSA's agricultural trade, while others indicate that new opportunities with China may offset these losses. Additionally, the exact implications of the EU's new regulations on deforestation for SSA exports remain unclear.

African agrifood trade at a crossroads