Latvia's Border Under Pressure Amid Hybrid Warfare

Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Latvia has faced increasing pressure along its border with Belarus and Russia. In 2025, border guards intercepted approximately 10,000 migrants attempting to cross into Latvia, nearly double the total from the previous year. Many of these migrants, primarily from Africa and the Middle East, now possess Russian visas, complicating the situation. Lt. Col. Vadims Grickovs, head of the border control and immigration service in Daugavpils, noted that the current migrant influx is part of a broader hybrid conflict strategy employed by Russia and Belarus, characterized by actions that are difficult to attribute directly to state actors.

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In response to the escalating situation, Latvia has significantly militarized its border. The government has invested millions in constructing a 145-kilometer fence along the Belarusian frontier and has increased its defense budget from over 2% of GDP in 2022 to a target of 5% by 2026. Anti-terrorism drills and military exercises have become commonplace, with border guards preparing for potential military command under crisis scenarios. Grickovs emphasized the need for enhanced border surveillance, proposing an expansion of restricted access zones from 12 to 42 meters to improve detection capabilities.

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Latvia's security landscape is further complicated by cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns attributed to Russian efforts to destabilize the country. The Cyber Incident Response Institution of Latvia reported a significant rise in cyber threats since 2022, with attempts to disrupt critical infrastructure and communications networks. Former head of the Constitution Protection Bureau, Janis Kažocinš, highlighted the challenges posed by Russian incursions into NATO airspace, suggesting that these actions are part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy aimed at testing NATO's resolve.

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Critics argue that the European response to hybrid threats has been inadequate. Artis Pabriks, a former defense minister, noted that while Baltic states have adapted to living in a state of hybrid conflict, the need for a cohesive European strategy is paramount. He emphasized that the West must not compromise its democratic values while countering these threats. Additionally, Marija Golubeva, Latvia’s former minister of the interior, pointed out that private sector entities are increasingly aware of their vulnerability to hybrid attacks and are seeking government collaboration to enhance resilience.

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Latvia's Minister of Defense, Andris Spruds, stated, “We are not formally at war, but we are not at peace; we are in hybrid warfare.” This sentiment reflects the broader recognition among European leaders that the conflict has extended beyond Ukraine's borders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for the construction of a "drone wall" to protect against aerial threats, underscoring the urgency of a unified defense strategy.

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• “We are not formally at war, but we are not at peace, we are in hybrid warfare,” — Andris Spruds, Minister of Defense, Latvia

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• “They use our rules against us and they do not comply with these rules themselves.” — Artis Pabriks, Former Defense Minister, Latvia

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• “The question is whether when there’s sabotage or drones of unknown provenance start hitting electricity and communications, people will start to realise that life isn’t quite so simple,” — Janis Kažocinš, Former Head of the Constitution Protection Bureau

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The situation at Latvia's border exemplifies the complexities of hybrid warfare, where traditional military responses must be complemented by robust cyber defenses and public resilience strategies. As European nations grapple with the implications of Russia's aggressive tactics, the need for a coordinated and comprehensive approach to security becomes increasingly critical.

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