China's New Emissions Pledge: Implications for Global Climate Action

On September 24, 2024, during a video address at the United Nations Climate Summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035. This pledge is part of China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement and marks a significant step in the country's climate strategy, which aims for carbon neutrality by 2060.

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China's commitment is particularly noteworthy as it is the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, responsible for approximately one-third of global emissions. Analysts emphasize that the pace at which China implements this target will have profound implications for global climate efforts. The Asia Society Policy Institute highlights that China has accounted for 90% of the growth in global CO2 emissions since 2015, making its actions critical to the success of the Paris Agreement.

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Research indicates that China's carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak soon, with projections suggesting a decline towards net zero by 2060. The recent analysis by climate scientists Junting Zhong and colleagues outlines a "reality-aligned scenario" where global emissions peak this decade, aligning with China's commitments. However, the specifics of how the 7%-10% reduction will be achieved remain a topic of discussion, particularly regarding the roles of methane and land use changes.

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While some experts view China's targets as a positive step, others argue that they fall short of what is necessary to meet global climate goals. Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air contends that a reduction of less than 20% is insufficient for limiting warming to 2°C. Conversely, Zhang Da from Tsinghua University believes that the target is a significant advancement, especially considering the challenges of reducing non-CO2 emissions.

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China's NDC represents the first time the country has officially outlined its post-peaking plan, according to Yao Zhe from Greenpeace East Asia. The announcement has been met with mixed reactions globally, with some analysts expressing concern that the target may allow for short-term emissions increases due to its vague definition.

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There is a discrepancy in how experts interpret the implications of China's emissions target. While some assert that the target is achievable and necessary, others warn that it may not be ambitious enough to align with the Paris Agreement's goals. Additionally, the lack of detailed plans on how to achieve these reductions raises questions about the feasibility of the commitments.

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As countries prepare for COP30 in November 2025, the focus will be on how nations, including China, will formalize their climate pledges. The global community is keenly observing China's actions, as its emissions trajectory will significantly influence international climate efforts and investment in renewable energy technologies.

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• “China’s targets aren’t just slogans or aspirations – they are statements of intent, grounded in what the country believes it can deliver.” — Myles Allen, Climate Scientist

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• “Reducing non-CO 2 emissions is typically more challenging than mitigating CO 2 ,” — Zhang Da, Energy Economist

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• “Anything less than 20% is definitely not aligned with 2 degrees.” — Lauri Myllyvirta, Climate Analyst

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• “Setting and evaluating targets is a key means through which the central government manages the country.” — Yao Zhe, Climate Policy Researcher

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China's emissions pledge is a critical development in the global climate landscape, with the potential to shape future international climate policies and actions.

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