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U.S. Government Shutdown Threatens Economy, Jobs Decline

10/3/2025

22 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Government Shutdown Impact

The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, due to funding disputes between Democrats and Republicans.
S&P Global estimates GDP could fall 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week of shutdown.
The shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, complicating policymaking and investor decisions.
Private sector jobs fell 32,000 in September, the largest decline in over two years.

Summary

Policy Uncertainty Slows Lending

A one standard deviation rise in U.S. policy uncertainty could slow euro area loan growth by 0.5 percentage points over two years.
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached record highs, driven by geopolitical risks and U.S. trade policy.
Banks with high exposure to U.S. policy changes are reducing lending and raising rates, hindering credit for U.S.-trading firms.

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Government Shutdown Impact

The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, due to funding disputes between Democrats and Republicans.
S&P Global estimates GDP could fall 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week of shutdown.
The shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, complicating policymaking and investor decisions.
Private sector jobs fell 32,000 in September, the largest decline in over two years.

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