Expiration of AGOA and Its Impact on African Trade

The African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), a significant piece of U.S. legislation aimed at enhancing trade with African nations, expired on September 30, 2025, after 25 years of implementation. Originally enacted in 2000 and renewed for ten years in 2015, AGOA provided duty-free access to thousands of products from 32 sub-Saharan African countries to the U.S. market. The expiration comes at a critical time, as African nations face the dual challenge of losing these trade benefits while contending with new U.S. tariffs imposed in April 2025.

As AGOA expires, countries will feel “double impact” of US tariffs

The AGOA facilitated approximately $10 billion in exports from its member countries, a figure that pales in comparison to the over $3 trillion in total U.S. imports. With the expiration of AGOA, African countries are now subject to most-favored-nation tariffs, which can range from 10% to as high as 40%. This shift significantly undermines the competitive edge that AGOA provided, particularly impacting sectors like apparel, where countries such as Kenya and Lesotho have historically benefited.

As AGOA expires, countries will feel “double impact” of US tariffs

Critics argue that AGOA has not fully achieved its intended goals of fostering sustainable trade and economic development. Luz Maria de la Mora, UNCTAD’s director of the division of international trade and commodities, noted that while AGOA made member countries more attractive to investors, it primarily facilitated raw material exports without promoting further industrialization. This has limited the long-term economic benefits for these nations.

As AGOA expires, countries will feel “double impact” of US tariffs

In light of the expiration, African leaders have expressed optimism about a potential renewal. South African Trade Minister Park Tau indicated that both the U.S. administration and Congress seem supportive of a short-term extension. However, concerns remain regarding South Africa's geopolitical stance, which could affect its inclusion in any renewal discussions.

Reuters

Amidst the broader implications of AGOA's expiration, Botswana is actively negotiating with the U.S. for a duty-free agreement on its diamond exports, which are crucial to its economy. Currently facing a 15% tariff, Botswana's President Duma Boko has emphasized the importance of these negotiations, stating, “We have asked for zero tariffs between Botswana and the United States.” The country is also proposing to grant U.S. companies priority access to its minerals in exchange for tariff relief.

Botswana offers U.S. duty-free access to its diamonds in exchange for 0% tariffAs AGOA expires, countries will feel “double impact” of US tariffs

As African nations seek alternatives to U.S. markets, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is emerging as a potential solution to mitigate the economic fallout from AGOA's expiration. Experts argue that enhancing intra-African trade could provide a buffer against global trade disruptions and foster local economic development.

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While there is optimism regarding the potential renewal of AGOA, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown raises uncertainties about the timeline and feasibility of any legislative action. Additionally, the impact of U.S. tariffs on specific sectors, such as Botswana's diamond industry, remains a point of contention, with varying estimates on the extent of economic damage.

Botswana offers U.S. duty-free access to its diamonds in exchange for 0% tariff

• “AGOA is a legislation that needs to come from Congress. It needs to be approved both in the House and the Senate,” — Luz Maria de la Mora, UNCTAD

As AGOA expires, countries will feel “double impact” of US tariffs

• “These punitive measures threaten the sustainability of Botswana’s diamond industry and present a serious obstacle to broader economic growth across Africa,” — President Duma Boko, Botswana

Botswana offers U.S. duty-free access to its diamonds in exchange for 0% tariff

• “The understanding at this stage is that it will be a straight extension so all the countries that are currently beneficiaries of AGOA will therefore be included in the short-term extension, including South Africa,” — Xolelwa Mlumbi-Peter, South Africa's Deputy Trade Director

Reuters