Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

WTO Slashes 2026 Trade Growth Forecast Amid Tariff Delays

10/9/2025

29 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

WTO Forecasts Trade Slowdown

The World Trade Organization (WTO) projects 2026 global merchandise trade growth at 0.5%, down from 1.8%, due to delayed U.S. tariff effects.
For 2025, the WTO expects growth of 2.4%, driven by AI-related goods and front-loaded imports before tariff hikes.
Okonjo-Iweala says the outlook is bleak and all regions may face weaker imports in 2026 as tariff effects deepen.

History

Historical Context

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), implemented on January 1, 1994, aimed to eliminate trade barriers among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, resulting in a 300% increase in trilateral trade by 2018. However, the agreement faced criticism for job losses in the U.S. and rising tariffs under the World Trade Organization, complicating global trade dynamics and economic stability.

1 of 2

WTO Forecasts Trade Slowdown

The World Trade Organization (WTO) projects 2026 global merchandise trade growth at 0.5%, down from 1.8%, due to delayed U.S. tariff effects.
For 2025, the WTO expects growth of 2.4%, driven by AI-related goods and front-loaded imports before tariff hikes.
Okonjo-Iweala says the outlook is bleak and all regions may face weaker imports in 2026 as tariff effects deepen.

1 / 2