Full Breakdown
November Feeder Cattle Market Shows Bullish Momentum Amid Supply Constraints
10/9/2025, 2:22:24 PM
Market Overview and Recent Trends
On October 6, 2025, November Feeder Cattle reached a contract high close of 364.250, marking a significant gain of 3.450. The trading volume has been notably high, indicating a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market. This upward trend is supported by a break above the trendline resistance established in August and September, with potential support levels estimated around 362.000. The short-term moving averages (5- and 10-day) have also shown a bullish crossover, suggesting further upward momentum.
Supply Constraints Impacting Prices
The current bullish trend is largely attributed to a tightening supply of cattle. The closure of the U.S.-Mexico border has resulted in a loss of approximately 100,000 head of feeder weight cattle per month, contributing to a domestic supply deficit of about 1,000,000 head. This situation is exacerbated by the presence of New World Screwworm cases in Northern Mexico, which further complicates the reopening of the border. Even if the border were to reopen immediately, it would take 12 to 18 months for the cattle to reach slaughter weight, prolonging the supply issues.
Demand Dynamics
Despite high retail prices, consumer demand for beef remains robust. Analysts note that the U.S. market has developed a strong preference for protein sources, with beef being a favored option. As long as consumer demand holds steady, the upward pressure on prices is expected to continue. However, the upcoming USDA Cattle on Feed data, which may be delayed due to the government shutdown, is crucial for assessing herd expansion and heifer retention rates.
Trading Strategies and Market Outlook
Traders are advised to consider long positions in November Feeder Cattle, with protective sell stop orders suggested near recent lows. Potential upside targets include the previous contract high of 367.650 and the psychological level of 370.000. Longer-term projections indicate that prices could eventually reach 400.000, although this will depend on resolving supply constraints and maintaining consumer demand.
Criticism and Market Risks
While the bullish outlook is prevalent, some analysts caution against potential volatility and corrections in the market. The current overbought conditions, as indicated by stochastic readings, suggest that traders should remain vigilant. The market's tendency to make large intra-day moves necessitates careful risk management.
Conclusion
The November Feeder Cattle market is currently characterized by strong bullish momentum driven by supply constraints and sustained consumer demand. As traders navigate this dynamic environment, the interplay between supply issues and market sentiment will be critical in determining future price movements.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The bulls are back in charge of this market.” — Market Analyst
- “We’re losing out on about 100,000 head of feeder weight cattle that normally come across every month.” — Market Analyst
- “Until consumers balk in great numbers, I don’t see that changing.” — Market Analyst
- “Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long positions in November Feeder Cattle.” — Market Analyst
