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Exploring Alternatives to BLS: PCE and ADP Rise

10/9/2025

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Summary

Story summary

Alternatives to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index include the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) and regional central bank indexes.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) payroll data is proposed as a reliable substitute for BLS employment surveys and correlates with BLS figures.
Low BLS survey response rates may push bespoke estimates; federal-data scrutiny notes issues and revisions.

History

Historical Context

In the late 1970s, the U.S. faced rising inflation, peaking at double digits in 1980, largely due to oil price shocks. This prompted the Bureau of Labor Statistics to reform its consumer price index methodology, leading to the development of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. Today, low survey response rates continue to challenge accurate economic measurement, emphasizing the need for reliable indicators in federal policy.

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Story summary

Alternatives to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index include the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) and regional central bank indexes.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) payroll data is proposed as a reliable substitute for BLS employment surveys and correlates with BLS figures.
Low BLS survey response rates may push bespoke estimates; federal-data scrutiny notes issues and revisions.

1 / 2