U.S. Grain and Livestock Markets: Current Trends and Impacts

As of early October 2025, U.S. grain and livestock markets are experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors, including harvest yields, farmer selling behavior, and trade negotiations with China. The national average corn basis has shown slight improvement, while soybean prices have risen due to limited sales by farmers who are holding onto their crops in anticipation of better prices.

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The national average corn basis increased by 1 cent to 41 cents under December futures, with the cash corn index at $3.78. In contrast, the national average soybean basis improved by 2 cents to 78 cents under November futures, with the cash soybean index rising to $9.44. This trend reflects a broader market sentiment where farmers are reluctant to sell at current prices, particularly in regions like the Dakotas and Minnesota, where basis levels are notably low.

Midweek Cash Markets | National average soybean basis firms slightly

Jon Scheve of Scheve Grain noted that the lack of farmer selling is contributing to improved basis levels for soybeans, with expectations of a potential trade deal with China further motivating farmers to hold their crops. He indicated that many farmers are storing soybeans, waiting for a favorable market shift, which could lead to a basis increase of 10 to 20 cents in various locations.

AgWebSoybeans gain on lackluster harvest sales, lower yield outlookAgWeb

Current forecasts suggest that U.S. soybean yields may be lower than previously estimated, with the USDA expected to revise its yield projections downward. Despite this, early reports indicate that yields in some regions, such as Ohio, are surprisingly robust, with producers reporting yields close to average despite adverse weather conditions earlier in the season.

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Conversely, corn yields are anticipated to be lower, particularly in areas like Iowa, where some producers are reporting yields significantly below last year. However, yields in the Dakotas have exceeded expectations, suggesting a mixed harvest outcome across the country.

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In the livestock sector, cattle futures have shown strength, with feeder cattle reaching all-time highs. This surge is attributed to a strong cash market and reduced supplies due to the closure of the Southern U.S. border to Mexican imports, which has decreased feeder cattle availability. However, the market faces challenges, including rising weights and tight packer profit margins.

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Lean hog futures have been consolidating following a bullish USDA report, but recent profit-taking has led to a decline in prices. Analysts suggest that the market is stabilizing as disease issues within the hog sector appear to be subsiding.

AgWebAgWebThe Progressive FarmerMidweek Cash Markets | National average soybean basis firms slightly

Mark Knight from Farmer’s Keeper Financial emphasized the importance of the anticipated $15 billion farmer aid package, which is expected to support soybean producers affected by trade tariffs. He noted that this aid could help farmers maintain their crops off the market longer, preventing excess supply from flooding the market.

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Some analysts express caution regarding the optimism surrounding a potential trade deal with China, suggesting that while a deal may eventually occur, it is uncertain whether it will happen in the near term. Concerns also exist about the sustainability of current cattle market gains, given the rising costs and pressures on packers.

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The market is closely monitoring developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, as any agreements could significantly impact soybean demand. Additionally, the USDA's upcoming reports, once the government reopens, are expected to provide critical data that could influence market dynamics moving forward.

Soybeans gain on lackluster harvest sales, lower yield outlook

• “I don't feel like we're getting a whole lot of harvest pressure in beans. Farmers are not aggressively selling beans even though they are aggressively harvesting beans,” — Ted Seifried, Chief Market Strategist, Zaner Ag Hedge

Soybeans gain on lackluster harvest sales, lower yield outlook

• “The market is still trying to determine the yield and that keeps us in a trading range,” — Mark Knight, Farmer’s Keeper Financial

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• “Hey, there’s a lot of corn still out in the country.” — Jon Scheve, Scheve Grain

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• “So, this year’s situation seems to be completely different and may not be as bad as it seems and why the lack of Chinese purchases isn’t going to hurt as much as some worry it could,” — Jon Scheve, Scheve Grain

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