UFC Fight Night 261: Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell Preview

Lucas Almeida is set to face Michael Aswell in a featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 261, taking place on October 11, 2025, at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This matchup marks Almeida's first fight in his home country since joining the UFC, while Aswell aims to recover from a recent loss. Both fighters are looking to avoid consecutive defeats, adding pressure to their performance.

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Aswell enters the fight as the favorite, with odds of -245, while Almeida is listed as the underdog at +200. Analysts predict a competitive bout, with some favoring Aswell by decision due to his higher striking output. However, Almeida's knockout power remains a significant factor, as he has secured 14 of his 15 career wins by knockout or submission.

UFC Fight Night 261 - Betting Odds, Prediction: Almeida vs Aswell

Speculation has arisen regarding Almeida's potential injury, specifically a swollen right hand observed during weigh-ins. Fans and analysts have expressed concern that this injury could impact his performance. Despite these worries, the fight is scheduled to proceed, reflecting a common practice among fighters to compete despite injuries.

Bettors beware! UFC Rio fighter appears to have broken hand

While there has been no official comment from the UFC regarding Almeida's injury, the promotion has a history of allowing fighters to compete under challenging circumstances. This situation has sparked discussions among fans about fighter safety and the responsibilities of promotions in ensuring athletes are fit to compete.

Bettors beware! UFC Rio fighter appears to have broken hand

The fight between Almeida and Aswell is anticipated to be an exciting opener for the main card, which also features notable matchups, including Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot. Fans can watch the event live on ESPN+, with Almeida and Aswell expected to make their walks to the cage around 7:10 PM ET.

Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell prediction, pick, start time for UFC Rio

• “I broke my right hand 10 days before my fight and broke my other hand in the second round of that fight. I ended up winning the fight and also got fight of the night.” — Cub Swanson, UFC Veteran

‘Cancel the fight! ’… Fans fear for UFC Rio star after speculation builds around potential injury

This matchup not only highlights the fighters' skills but also the broader implications of athlete health and safety in mixed martial arts.

Bettors beware! UFC Rio fighter appears to have broken hand