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JPMorgan Predicts Higher Tax Refunds Amid 2025 Cuts

10/12/2025

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Summary

Story summary

David Kelly, JPMorgan Chief Global Strategist, predicts early 2026 U.S. tax refunds will rise.
This rise follows retroactive tax cuts from the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) effective January 1, 2025.
The Internal Revenue Service will not adjust withholding rates, yielding higher upfront payments.
The average refund is expected to reach $3,743, with higher-income earners benefiting more.
Tariffs could cost households up to $2,400, disproportionately affecting lower-income families.

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Story summary

David Kelly, JPMorgan Chief Global Strategist, predicts early 2026 U.S. tax refunds will rise.
This rise follows retroactive tax cuts from the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) effective January 1, 2025.
The Internal Revenue Service will not adjust withholding rates, yielding higher upfront payments.
The average refund is expected to reach $3,743, with higher-income earners benefiting more.
Tariffs could cost households up to $2,400, disproportionately affecting lower-income families.