Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

Shiller P/E Hits 40: Is a Market Decline Coming?

10/13/2025

27 4

Summary

Story summary

The Shiller P/E ratio recently peaked at 40.32, signaling potential declines for major stock indexes such as the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq.
Historically, when the Shiller P/E surpassed 30, declines of 20% to 89% followed.
The bull market, confirmed in June 2023, has seen record highs, though peaks like these often precede corrections.
Long-term investors may find opportunities, as bear markets tend to last about 9.5 months on average.

1 of 1

Story summary

The Shiller P/E ratio recently peaked at 40.32, signaling potential declines for major stock indexes such as the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq.
Historically, when the Shiller P/E surpassed 30, declines of 20% to 89% followed.
The bull market, confirmed in June 2023, has seen record highs, though peaks like these often precede corrections.
Long-term investors may find opportunities, as bear markets tend to last about 9.5 months on average.