The Dynamics of Russian Oil Purchases Amid Global Sanctions

Since the escalation of its war against Ukraine in 2022, Russia has generated approximately 954 billion euros from fossil fuel exports, with 214 billion euros coming from the European Union (EU). Oil and gas constitute 30-50% of Russia's federal budget revenue and 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP). In August 2025, China emerged as the largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, accounting for 40% of exports, followed by India and Turkey. Despite sanctions, a few EU countries, including Hungary, Slovakia, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium, continue to import significant amounts of Russian energy.

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The EU has implemented various sanctions, including a price cap of $60 per barrel on seaborne Russian crude oil and an embargo on coal imports. However, the EU's imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) have not been sanctioned, leading to a paradox where the bloc remains a major buyer of Russian energy. In August 2022, the EU banned Russian coal imports, and by December 2022, it imposed a price cap on crude oil shipments to third countries. Despite these measures, Russian fossil fuel revenues have remained substantial, with the oil and gas sector generating 113 billion euros in tax revenue for the Kremlin in 2024, covering 83% of military expenditures.

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China and India have become crucial to Russia's energy revenue, with India reducing its state-owned refiners' imports by over 45% between June and September 2025, yet private refiners like Reliance Industries have increased their purchases. In September 2025, India imported 600,000 barrels per day of Russian crude, while private refiners accounted for a significant portion of the total imports. The U.S. has pressured India to reduce its Russian oil purchases, threatening tariffs that could rise to 50%.

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U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized China and India for their continued purchases of Russian oil, asserting that they are financing the ongoing war. He has called for Europe and NATO to cease imports of Russian oil and has suggested imposing secondary tariffs on countries that continue to buy Russian energy. Despite these threats, analysts indicate that major buyers are likely to continue their purchases unless significant sanctions are imposed.

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While India has shown some reduction in state-owned imports, private companies are filling the gap, maintaining overall Russian crude arrivals at stable levels. The narrowing price discounts on Russian oil are also influencing purchasing decisions. Analysts suggest that unless the U.S. imposes stricter sanctions, countries like India and Turkey will continue to rely on Russian energy, albeit with efforts to diversify their sources.

How to Cut Russia’s Oil Revenue by $80 Bln a Year

The EU is negotiating a total ban on Russian LNG imports by 2027, while discussions are ongoing regarding a broader phase-out of Russian oil and gas imports. The upcoming trade talks between India and the U.S. may address the contentious issue of Russian oil purchases, with India seeking to increase its imports of U.S. energy. As geopolitical dynamics evolve, the future of Russian fossil fuel exports remains uncertain, heavily influenced by international sanctions and the responses of major buyers.

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• “China and India are the primary funders of the ongoing war by continuing to purchase Russian oil, but inexcusably, even NATO countries have not cut off much Russian energy and Russian energy products,” — Donald Trump, U.S. President

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• “In August, the EU remained the largest buyer of both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas from Russia, according to CREA.” — Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) report

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There are discrepancies regarding the extent of reductions in Russian oil imports by India, with state-owned refiners cutting back significantly while private refiners increase their purchases. Additionally, the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian imports remains unclear, as some analysts predict a potential tapering off of Russian oil purchases due to diminishing price advantages.

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