Full Breakdown
Impact of Tariff Uncertainty on U.S. Port Volumes
10/16/2025, 2:03:03 PM
Record Container Traffic Amidst Declining Imports
In the third quarter of 2025, the Port of Singapore achieved a record container traffic volume of 93.04 million tonnes, despite a slight overall decrease in total goods handled compared to the previous year. This growth was driven by a significant increase in containerized traffic, which rose by 9.8% to 11,495,750 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). However, U.S. ports, particularly the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Oakland, are experiencing contrasting trends, with declining import volumes attributed to ongoing tariff uncertainties and trade tensions.
Tariff Impacts on U.S. Ports
The Port of Los Angeles reported an 8% decline in imports for September 2025, marking a second consecutive monthly decrease. Despite achieving a record cargo volume of 2.9 million TEUs in the third quarter, port officials attribute the slowdown to the effects of tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump, which are squeezing profit margins and raising consumer prices. Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, noted, “We’re past peak season and expect to see cargo volume soften over the last three months of the year.”
Similarly, the Port of Oakland is facing challenges as import volumes dipped slightly in August, indicating that the anticipated surge in drayage activity for the 2025 peak season may not materialize. The National Retail Federation forecasts a potential 16% year-over-year drop in import volumes as businesses work through stockpiled inventories, exacerbated by tariff policies.
Criticism of Tariff Policies
Critics argue that the tariffs have created significant uncertainty within the supply chain, leading to a decline in import activity. Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain for ITS Logistics, highlighted that shippers are now focused on protecting their inventory from rising rates of cargo theft, which have reached record levels. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has also led to a pause in shipments from several countries and global shipping companies, further complicating the logistics landscape.
Conflicting Reports on Future Volumes
Forecasts regarding future import volumes remain uncertain. While the National Retail Federation anticipates a steady decline in inbound goods from September through December, some analysts suggest that the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will only become apparent as stockpiles are depleted. This situation creates a complex environment for shippers and port operators as they navigate the challenges posed by both tariff policies and changing market dynamics.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We’re past peak season and expect to see cargo volume soften over the last three months of the year,” — Gene Seroka, Executive Director, Port of Los Angeles
- “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent” — Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates
In summary, while the Port of Singapore continues to thrive with record container traffic, U.S. ports are grappling with the adverse effects of tariff uncertainties and trade tensions, leading to declining import volumes and heightened scrutiny of supply chain practices.
