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Reform UK Set for Majority, Labour Crumbles in Polls

10/16/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The Electoral Calculus MRP poll projects Reform UK could win 445 seats, far ahead of Labour at 73 and the Conservatives at seven, suggesting a majority.
Labour's vote share falls 16 points from last year, with losses in previously held constituencies.
Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party is projected to win 5% of the vote and up to 13 seats, with tactical voting potentially reducing Reform's gains but not preventing a majority.

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Story summary

The Electoral Calculus MRP poll projects Reform UK could win 445 seats, far ahead of Labour at 73 and the Conservatives at seven, suggesting a majority.
Labour's vote share falls 16 points from last year, with losses in previously held constituencies.
Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party is projected to win 5% of the vote and up to 13 seats, with tactical voting potentially reducing Reform's gains but not preventing a majority.