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Germany Faces 34.8% Recession Risk Amid Modest Growth Projections

10/17/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The Institute for Macroeconomic Policy (IMK) projects slight growth for Germany in Q4 2025, with a 34.8% recession probability.
Exports fell 0.5% in August due to weaker U.S. demand, and Sebastian Dullien, research director at IMK, says growth will depend on domestic resources.
The government expects growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.

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Story summary

The Institute for Macroeconomic Policy (IMK) projects slight growth for Germany in Q4 2025, with a 34.8% recession probability.
Exports fell 0.5% in August due to weaker U.S. demand, and Sebastian Dullien, research director at IMK, says growth will depend on domestic resources.
The government expects growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.