Caerphilly By-Election: A Historic Shift in Welsh Politics

The upcoming Caerphilly by-election, scheduled for October 23, 2025, is poised to mark a significant turning point in Welsh politics. A recent Survation poll conducted for Camlas Public Affairs indicates a dramatic shift in voter sentiment, with Reform UK leading at 42%, followed closely by Plaid Cymru at 38%, while Labour has plummeted to just 12%. This represents a stark contrast to the 2021 Senedd election, where Labour secured 46% of the vote. The poll reflects a broader trend of fragmentation among traditional party bases, with only one-third of Labour's 2021 supporters remaining loyal.

Reform UK Edges Ahead in Tight Caerphilly By-Election RaceCaerphilly by-election poll sends shockwaves across Welsh politicsReform UK and Plaid Cymru neck and neck in Caerphilly Senedd by-election – Labour pushed into thirdSouth Wales Argus

Caerphilly has long been a Labour stronghold, with the party holding the seat since the inception of the Senedd in 1999. However, the recent polling suggests that Labour's dominance may be coming to an end, as both Reform and Plaid Cymru capitalize on discontent among voters. The by-election was triggered by the death of Labour member Hefin David in August, further complicating Labour's campaign during a challenging political climate.

Labour on course for distant third place in Caerphilly by-election, poll showsITV NewsCaerphilly by-election poll sends shockwaves across Welsh politicsReform UK Edges Ahead in Tight Caerphilly By-Election Race

The candidates vying for the Caerphilly seat include Richard Tunnicliffe for Labour, Llyr Powell for Reform UK, and Lindsay Whittle for Plaid Cymru. Tunnicliffe faces the daunting task of revitalizing Labour's support, while Powell and Whittle aim to consolidate their respective bases among older and younger voters. The dynamics of this election are underscored by the emergence of tactical voting strategies, with some groups urging voters to support Plaid Cymru to prevent a Reform victory.

WalesOnline

Reform UK has faced criticism for its focus on immigration issues during the campaign. During a recent debate, audience members expressed concerns about the party's rhetoric, which they feel has fostered division within the community. Richard Tunnicliffe accused Reform of "weaponizing" immigration, while Plaid Cymru's Whittle emphasized the importance of supporting refugees under the Welsh government's "Nation of Sanctuary" policy, which Reform has pledged to abolish.

The Guardian

Pat McFadden, Labour's Work and Pensions Secretary, asserted that Labour will not concede its long-held position in Wales, stating, "Caerphilly has been a Labour town for a long time... I don't think either of the others offer a good answer for Caerphilly." Meanwhile, Rhodri ab Owen, managing director of Camlas, noted that the by-election is a reflection of potential future trends in Welsh politics, emphasizing that "the battle lines of Welsh politics have been redrawn."

WalesOnline

As the by-election approaches, all eyes are on Caerphilly to see if Labour can maintain its historical grip on the constituency or if Reform UK and Plaid Cymru will signal a new era in Welsh governance. The outcome could have significant implications for the 2026 Senedd elections, potentially reshaping the political landscape in Wales.

Caerphilly by-election poll sends shockwaves across Welsh politicsSouth Wales ArgusReform UK and Plaid Cymru neck and neck in Caerphilly Senedd by-election – Labour pushed into third

• “While Labour’s one hundred year long unbeaten record in Caerphilly’s Senedd and Westminster elections is highly likely to be coming to an end, this type of result being replicated nationally will also see the end of over twenty years of Labour Welsh Government dominance, with Reform or Plaid the likely party of power in 2026.” — Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation

Labour on course for distant third place in Caerphilly by-election, poll shows

• “We will never step aside," Mr McFadden said: "Caerphilly has been a Labour town for a long time, that doesn't mean we take anything for granted.” — Pat McFadden, Work and Pensions Secretary

WalesOnline

• “Reform don’t want to fix it, they just want to sow division and fear.” — Richard Tunnicliffe, Labour Candidate

The Guardian

• “The battle lines of Welsh politics have been redrawn.” — Rhodri ab Owen, Managing Director of Camlas

Caerphilly by-election poll sends shockwaves across Welsh politics

The Caerphilly by-election is not merely a local contest; it represents a critical juncture for Welsh politics, with potential ramifications that extend far beyond the constituency itself.

The by-election that could reveal Reform and Labour’s political future