Story perspectives

Goldman Sachs: Optimistic GDP Estimates May Mislead Amid Shutdown

10/22/2025

Summary

Goldman Sachs Warns

Goldman Sachs warns that US GDP estimates may be overly optimistic due to data gaps during the government shutdown.
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, says GDP readings for Q2 and Q3 have risen, but employment data could undermine the outlook.
Labor market indicators show stagnation or contraction, especially for younger workers.
Despite a strong stock market, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates before year-end amid shutdown uncertainty.

Summary

Cannabis Sales Surge

United States legal cannabis retail sales were $30.1 billion in 2024 and are projected to reach $34 billion in 2025.
The sector's total economic contribution is expected to exceed $123.6 billion, driven by jobs and spending.
Only 27.3% of cannabis operators reported profitability due to heavy taxation and limited banking access.
State actions vary, with some creating jobs and others facing losses, while the illicit market and regulations remain challenges.

History

Historical Context

The 2013 U.S. government shutdown, lasting from October 1 to October 17, resulted from a budget impasse over the Affordable Care Act, affecting 800,000 federal employees and costing the economy an estimated $24 billion. This event echoes current labor market stagnation, particularly among younger workers, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainties and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts reminiscent of past fiscal crises.

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Goldman Sachs Warns

Goldman Sachs warns that US GDP estimates may be overly optimistic due to data gaps during the government shutdown.
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, says GDP readings for Q2 and Q3 have risen, but employment data could undermine the outlook.
Labor market indicators show stagnation or contraction, especially for younger workers.
Despite a strong stock market, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates before year-end amid shutdown uncertainty.

1 / 3