Full Breakdown
U.S. Freight Tonnage Declines Amid Economic Uncertainty
10/24/2025, 2:03:29 PM
Freight Market Overview
In September 2025, U.S. freight tonnage experienced a decline of 0.9%, according to data from the American Trucking Associations (ATA) released on October 21. This drop follows August's near two-year high, indicating a sluggish freight market influenced by high interest rates, uneven consumer spending, and limited economic data due to a government shutdown. The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell to 114.2 from 115.3 in August, although it remains 0.8% higher than the same time last year.
Economic Context and Consumer Behavior
Bob Costello, ATA Chief Economist, noted that while tonnage levels are up 2.1% since a low in January, they are still 3.9% below the highs of three years ago. Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University, highlighted a bifurcated economy where lower-income individuals are economizing, while those in higher income brackets continue to thrive. This disparity is reflected in Social Security tax collections, which show weakness among lower-income earners.
Port Activity and Freight Volume
The Port of Los Angeles reported a record quarter in September, yet processed 7.5% fewer containers year-over-year, signaling a slowdown in activity. Similarly, the Port of Long Beach and Port of Oakland reported declines of 3.9% and 6.6%, respectively. Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics, remarked that despite a dip in freight volume, truckload rates remained stable, suggesting a potential stabilization in demand as the holiday quarter approaches.
Trucking Rates and Market Predictions
Despite the overall decline in freight tonnage, truckload rates saw slight increases across all equipment types. The national average spot rates for dry vans, refrigerated trailers, and flatbeds rose marginally from August. Adamo expressed cautious optimism, stating, “At this point, you’ve got to believe that rates have bottomed out.” However, he emphasized the uncertainty surrounding when rates might begin to rise again, given the current economic conditions.
Criticism and Concerns
The ongoing government shutdown has exacerbated challenges in the freight market, delaying critical economic data that could provide insights into consumer behavior and employment trends. The lack of timely information has left analysts and businesses in a state of uncertainty, complicating efforts to navigate the current economic landscape.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
The economic data blackout caused by the government shutdown has resulted in discrepancies in employment and labor market reports. For instance, the California Employment Development Department announced a delay in releasing state labor data, which is crucial for assessing the economic health of the region. This situation has left many stakeholders without essential information needed for decision-making.
Conclusion
The decline in U.S. freight tonnage in September 2025 reflects broader economic challenges, including high interest rates and consumer spending patterns. As the trucking industry prepares for the holiday season, the interplay between freight demand, trucking rates, and economic conditions will be critical in shaping the market's trajectory moving forward.
